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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that headline inflation in Nigeria eased to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August 2025.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, headline inflation increased by 0.72%, while food inflation dropped by 1.57% MoM — a rare contraction in the food basket.
Key Highlights & Context
The easing in the annual inflation rate marks a continuing disinflation trend after several months of moderation.
A negative MoM rate for food inflation suggests relief in prices for staples, which often weigh heavily on consumer budgets.
The moderate 0.72% MoM growth in overall inflation indicates that non-food costs (housing, energy, transport, education, etc.) may be exerting upward pressure.
Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal authorities may interpret these figures as room to begin loosening monetary policy, provided the trend persists.
However, risks remain: supply chain disruptions, exchange rate volatility, and subsidy or policy reversals could reaccelerate price pressures.
What to Watch
Core inflation trends (excluding volatile food/agriculture) to see if underlying pressures are easing.
Central Bank’s response — whether downward pressure on interest rates begins.
Regional/national divergence — some states may still face stronger inflation depending on logistics, insecurity, or local markets.
Impact on consumer purchasing power, especially among lower-income households, as food price relief is critical for many.
More details coming soon — full breakdown by food, core, regional indices, and policy implications.
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